I have been seeing a number of posts that show how pandemics like Covid-19 come around every 100 years. In 1918, the Spanish Flu pandemic came around and wiped out nearly a third of the earth’s population (according to archived files from the Center for Disease Control). In 1820, a Cholera pandemic swept throughout most Southeast Asian countries. And in 1720, the Bubonic Plague brought Europe to its knees. Can we expect another one in the next 100 years?
Emergency hospital during influenza epidemic, Camp Funston, Kansas, circa 1918.
Source: National Museum of Health and Medicine
This article may have some technical inputs, but bear with me. I believe we have to understand history in order to understand why pandemics happen, and why Covid-19 is not going to be the last pandemic.
Maybe we can look at some answers by analyzing not just human history, but the history of the existence of all living things. By that, we mean taking a look at evolutionary history.
Science teaches us that before multi-cellular organisms evolved, single-celled organisms populated the earth. These single-celled organisms, at first, were incapable of utilizing molecular oxygen from the earth’s atmosphere. However, some evolved and were able to use oxygen to produce energy. This happened because photosynthesis produced oxygen, and some early organisms which were capable of harnessing solar energy were the primary source of oxygen. In essence, the abundance of sunlight, and the presence of oxygen, made organisms learn to harness these sources for their biochemical needs.
Now comes the part where these oxygen-utilizing cells came in contact with anaerobic cells (those that cannot use oxygen) and they decided to help each other – either because of need or due to the anaerobic organisms’ predatory character. It is believed that the mitochondria present within cells today was once a separate organism capable of using molecular oxygen, which decided to “cohabitate” with the anaerobe. Evidence shows that mitochondria have their own DNA, the “template” that makes proteins in cells. This means that the mitochondrion was probably a separate organism that evolved through time.
“Covid-19 is not going to be the last pandemic.”
This brings us to the important concept of evolution – organisms tend to help each other or are forced into cooperating when they are left with few choices. It’s either you cooperate, or you perish. Today, bacteria are known to associate together in a form of cell-to-cell communication called “quorum sensing”. This enables them to make adjustments to their DNA to improve survival.
So now that we know that DNA modification can happen to enhance the existence of cells, it is no wonder that when they evolved as multi-cellular structures, they also carried with them this idea of communicating to improve survival. And at times, non-living entities called “viruses” can make these DNA modifications, or mutations. Thus, cells learned to associate with viruses. Sometimes they win – some mutations led to the strengthening or improvement of the species. This made organisms evolve from single-celled to multi-cellular structures. But sometimes, they lose, and some bacteriophages are known that can kill bacteria, and of course we know how viruses can affect cells in multi-cellular organisms like humans.
Thus, from the time of unicellular organisms, until now, that we have become multi-cellular through evolution, the one constant that has remained among living structures is the ability to communicate and interact with the environment. And this communication can sometimes lead to prosperity or disaster. Small organisms like ants know the value of bonding together as a group to store food for the colony. Animals learned to interact for protection, and this includes humans. But these interactions with the environment can also produce dangerous results. For instance, our interaction with animals, like bats, was proposed to be the reason for the transfer of the coronavirus to humans.
And if we survive, what do we become? Stronger, more efficient, and more prepared.
Thus, it is our interdependence, our ability to communicate and interact with other organisms, that can improve us, or it can annihilate us. But if the organism survives, it becomes stronger, and it learns from its interactions. We know that we form antibodies against disease when the disease-causing organism does not kill us.
Covid-19 is not going to be the last pandemic. This is because we will never stop interacting with things or living creatures around us. It is part of our nature, our existence. It is what we are wired to do from the time the earth was created. The risk is always there. Relationships may be fun. They may also bring disaster. But we continue to harness these relationships.
And if we survive, what do we become? Stronger, more efficient, and more prepared. We create alliances with others. We make adjustments to a new normal. And eventually, we evolve into something new, something better. We also go and multiply. We procreate. And we prosper.