One of the most difficult realities that we have to face during this Covid-19 pandemic is the fact that we can no longer travel like we used to. According to Mike Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy in the United States, the virus is likely to keep spreading for at least another 18 months to two years until 60% to 70% of the population has been infected and herd immunity gradually develops. Herd immunity can only happen when an overwhelming majority of people get infected and get better, or if a vaccine comes along.
Many experts believe that Covid-19 may follow a course similar to what happened during the Spanish flu in 1918. It is more contagious than the common cold, and a single individual is capable of spreading the virus to at least 2 to 3 people (compared to 1 to 2 people for the common cold). This results in a potentially exponential rise in cases. And in this day and age, when we can reach the far ends of the globe within a few hours, it does not take long before a virus can spread widely. The worst-case scenario is for the number of infected people to overwhelm the ability of the healthcare system to cope. This will cause people who would otherwise be in a position to be treated to be neglected, resulting in a high number of deaths. The now-common reminder to “flatten the curve” is intended to prevent this scenario by allowing public health officials to buy time to provide more and better diagnostic and treatment services. And if we allow people to travel like they used to, it could paralyze the health system.
Consider what happened during the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic.
Almost all 1918 influenza deaths were due not to influenza itself but to complicating secondary bacterial pneumonias1, necessitating prolonged hospital stays. Infecting over 1/3 of the world population and killing 50 million people2, it took place at a time when world travel was not as it is today. Fifty million deaths would be unimaginable today. The best way to avoid the catastrophe is to control the movement of people.
We also have this tendency to take it easy, then we panic, and then we institute draconian measures to mitigate the disease. When COVID-19 was only prevalent in one country, we became complacent, thinking that it would not reach our shores. It only took a few weeks for us to realize the enormity of the situation, and suddenly we decided to enforce lockdowns. If we tried to impose travel restrictions early, we may have been more successful in controlling the spread of disease. Unfortunately, some would still want to prioritize economic gains over preventive measures. Could the fact that the most vulnerable population is supposedly those who are retired or retiring becoming a factor? Are we willing to pay the price?
Let us listen to the recommendations of experts. This is not just about the economy. The survival of the human race is on the line. If we do not heed the call to sacrifice, fifty million may turn out to be a measly number.
REFERENCES
Parmet, W. E., & Rothstein, M. A. (2018). The 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Lessons Learned and Not-Introduction to the Special Section. American journal of public health, 108(11),1435–1436. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304695
Short, K. R., Kedzierska, K., & van de Sandt, C. E. (2018). Back to the Future: Lessons Learned From the 1918 Influenza Pandemic. Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology, 8,343. https://doi.org/10.3389/fcimb.2018.00343